What is the US Consumer Demand Indices?

The US Consumer Demand Indeices forecasts Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) several months into the future and leadings the ISM-index by up to 5 months.

The power of consumer demand knowledge

If you subscribed to the monthly US Consumer Demand Indices in May 2008 you would have known that the time was right to start divesting all or most of your stocks ahead of the market decline in the Fall of 2008. At the same time, if you were a business manager forecasting demand in the same 5 month forward looking period, you would have had a strong indication of how deep the fall would be.

If you subscribe to the US Consumer Demand Indices, you will each month receive updated information about personal consumption behaviour in the months ahead.

Who should use this data to support business and investment decisions?

• Professional investment portfolio managers
• Active private equity investors
• Procurement, production, sales and marketing and transportation and logitics professionals
• Corporate, institutional and research economists
• Others who work with demand-related forecasting

How is the US Consumer Demand Indices composed?

Consumerdemand.com has developed a forecasting model that, with a high degree of certainty predicts developments in American consumer spending, which is decisive for developments in the global economy.

The US Consumer Demand Indices is differentiated from other indicators by its focus on actual behavior instead of ”impressions” or levels of confidence. It is based on direct information from households about their own plans, not on their expectations for any number of generalized macro-economic conditions. We have more than 20 years of experience with this type of survey and are able to substantiate that consumers’ stated intentions do in fact accurately reflect their future behavior. Thus our subscribers receive more reliable and earlier indications about market developments than other sources can provide.

Every month since February 2001, TNS-Intersearch, a well known and respected survey research company, has conducted 1,000 interviews with a representative cross-section of US private households, using methods and response techniques developed by ConsumerDemand.com. The collected data is then used to calculate the monthly US Consumer Demand Indices.

The Consumer Demand Indices is timely evidence for business decision making

The US Consumer Demand Indices predicts developments in private consumption several months before official statistics are released with an estimated 70 per cent accuracy. The monthly CDI report reveals how many households will purchase a new car, white goods, radio/TV, furniture, PCs, kitchen equipment and toys over the following three months. In addition, the monthly report reveals how many households over the next three months intend to purchase more, less, or the same amount of food products and footwear, compared to the same period of the previous year.

US private consumption influences developments in a wide range of economic and financial trends including interest and currency rates, share and bond prices, freight rates and raw material and finished product prices globally. Those able to predict levels of American consumption with a greater degree of certainty than others have a stronger possibility of avoiding losses and maximizing market growth ' opportunities.

The US Consumer Demand Indices is essential information, not just for the financial sector, including national banks and investors, but also manufacturers, the retail trade, freight companies and others seeking factual information to support forecasting and decision making.