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Confidence

Consumer Demand Index significantly down – but still above all time low

Posted Thu, 06/25/2009 by overby

After a surprisingly strong upswing in May, the CDI for June fell by more than 20 index points and now stands at -27, down from -5 in May as lower demand for clothing and food drags the aggregated index down. However, this is still 10 points up on the all-time low of February 2009. The three-month moving average is also down but less dramatically so, from -13 in May to -18 in June.  

US Consumer Demand still in limbo – down from March!

Posted Wed, 04/29/2009 by Jørn Thulstrup

After a fairly strong upturn in March, the monthly CDI fell in April, from -11 last month to –23, significantly lower than April last year, when the monthly index stood at +28. The three-month moving average is slightly up, from -26 in March to -23 now, an indication that the “green shoots” and “glimmers of hope” that President Obama saw in mid April are, until further notice, on hold. With the demand for cars the only exception, all sub-indices are down from March to April.
 
Data for the April survey were collected from 22nd to 26th of April.

Consumer Demand Still on Hold!

Posted Thu, 04/23/2009 by Jørn Thulstrup

I am a great fan of the American economist and Nobel Price laureate Paul Krugman, although I don't always agree with him. But on April 16, 2009 in his Op-Ed column in The New York Times, he gave four good reasons to be cautious about the economic outlook and I think he is absolutely right:
 
1. Things are still getting worse.
2. Some of the good news isn't convincing.
3. There may be other shoes to drop.
4. Even when it's over, it won't be over, because as Krugman states:
"nobody is in the mood for a new burst of spending."
 
The US Consumer Demand Index will be the first to tell for sure when US consumers are in the mood for serious spending. Subscribe today and be sure you will not miss the first and best signal of consumers'changing spending plans.
 
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/17/opinion/17krugman.html?_r=1

US Consumer Demand up – but still in negative territory

Posted Thu, 04/02/2009 by Jørn Thulstrup

The March data shows a fairly strong upturn in the monthly CDI to – 11 from – 37 in February. However the three months moving average only improves marginally from – 26 to – 25 and in order to see a real turnaround the moving aver-age has to be in positive territory three months in a row, so there is still some way to go. The up-turn in the March index is driven primarily by a higher demand for durables, clothing and food. The demand for cars and PC’s is only marginally up.
Data for March were collected from 25th to 29th of March.
 
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Consumer confidence increasing

Posted Fri, 03/20/2009 by roger

On Wednesday (18 March 2009) the Fed announced that it will add more than another $1 trillion to the credit markets this year, a sign of the determination of monetary authorities to do whatever is necessary to get credit flowing once again. And consumers noticed.
 
A Gallup Poll released today (19 March 2009) shows Americans' increasing confidence and improved expectations for the overall economy in the weeks and months ahead.  To see whether this will translate into increased consumer spending plans, subscribe to and receive our next US Consumer Demand Index report.
 
Dr. Roger Selbert
 
For full background and details you need to be a subscriber to the US Consumer Demand Index.
 

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