Consumers

CDI Down in January

Posted Fri, 02/12/2010 by Jørn Thulstrup

Consumers

CDI down in January, but risk of a double dip still remote! After four months in a solid upward trend the monthly CDI is now back in negative territory, moving down from +25 points in December to -3 in January. Even so, the CDI is still significantly above its level of January 2009. The sharp decline is most probably a result of the shockwaves caused by the Massachusetts election, which took place on the 19th of January 2010, the day before data collection, which was carried out from the 20th to the 24th of January. The Democrats lost the supermajority, a development, which changed the political landscape in the US. It’s primarily low- income households that are now cutting back on consumption.

The 3-month moving average, is at its highest level since May 2008, so no reason for panic

US Consumer Demand down from July - but still on track for recovery

Posted Wed, 08/26/2009 by overby

Consumers

After a remarkable upswing of 40 points in July, the monthly US Consumer Demand Index, US CDI, slipped back 28 points in August. However, this is a retrenchment, not a reversal: consumer spending in the USA is still on track for recovery. Both the monthly index and the three-month moving average are significantly higher than their all-time low levels of February 2009. (See Figure 1) The downturn is broad based, with buying decisions for cars the most significant - not unexpected after the surge of activity following the “cash for clunkers program”. Data for the August survey was collected from the 19th to 23rd of August.

Read more

CDI surge 40 points up - consumers stepping out of the woods!

Posted Thu, 07/30/2009 by Jørn Thulstrup

Consumers

For the first time since September 2008, the CDI is back in positive territory and at the highest level since April 2008. The upswing is remarkable, 40 points up from –27 in June to + 13 in July. The moving average is up from –18 to –6, the highest level since level since October 2008.The surge in the CDI is based on positive developments in nearly all product segments, most significantly the demand for food and grocery store items. Consumers have stepped out of the woods but there is still a long and not well-paved way to walk before private consumption in the US is back to a strong and growing level. Data for the July survey was collected from the 22nd to 25th of July.

US Consumer Demand still in limbo – down from March!

Posted Wed, 04/29/2009 by Jørn Thulstrup

After a fairly strong upturn in March, the monthly CDI fell in April, from -11 last month to –23, significantly lower than April last year, when the monthly index stood at +28. The three-month moving average is slightly up, from -26 in March to -23 now, an indication that the “green shoots” and “glimmers of hope” that President Obama saw in mid April are, until further notice, on hold. With the demand for cars the only exception, all sub-indices are down from March to April.

Data for the April survey were collected from 22nd to 26th of April.

Consumer Demand Still on Hold!

Posted Thu, 04/23/2009 by Jørn Thulstrup

I am a great fan of the American economist and Nobel Price laureate Paul Krugman, although I don't always agree with him. But on April 16, 2009 in his Op-Ed column in The New York Times, he gave four good reasons to be cautious about the economic outlook and I think he is absolutely right:

1. Things are still getting worse.
2. Some of the good news isn't convincing.
3. There may be other shoes to drop.
4. Even when it's over, it won't be over, because as Krugman states:
"nobody is in the mood for a new burst of spending."

The US Consumer Demand Index will be the first to tell for sure when US consumers are in the mood for serious spending. Subscribe today and be sure you will not miss the first and best signal of consumers'changing spending plans.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/17/opinion/17krugman.html?_r=1

US Consumer Demand up – but still in negative territory

Posted Thu, 04/02/2009 by Jørn Thulstrup

The March data shows a fairly strong upturn in the monthly CDI to – 11 from – 37 in February. However the three months moving average only improves marginally from – 26 to – 25 and in order to see a real turnaround the moving aver-age has to be in positive territory three months in a row, so there is still some way to go. The up-turn in the March index is driven primarily by a higher demand for durables, clothing and food. The demand for cars and PC’s is only marginally up.
Data for March were collected from 25th to 29th of March.

For full background and details you need to be a subscriber to the US Consumer Demand Index.

Consumer confidence increasing

Posted Fri, 03/20/2009 by roger

On Wednesday (18 March 2009) the Fed announced that it will add more than another $1 trillion to the credit markets this year, a sign of the determination of monetary authorities to do whatever is necessary to get credit flowing once again. And consumers noticed.

A Gallup Poll released today (19 March 2009) shows Americans' increasing confidence and improved expectations for the overall economy in the weeks and months ahead. To see whether this will translate into increased consumer spending plans, subscribe to and receive our next US Consumer Demand Index report.

Dr. Roger Selbert

For full background and details you need to be a subscriber to the US Consumer Demand Index.