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Economy

Surprisingly strong upswing in US Consumer Demand

Posted Tue, 05/26/2009 by Jørn Thulstrup

The CDI is now at the highest level since September 2008. The May survey shows a significant upswing from minus 23 points in April to minus 5 in May, driven by improvements in the index for clothing and the index for food and other grocery store items. These two important indices were the last to collapse when high fuel prices sent the US CDI south last year. It’s a fairly strong indication that the decline in US private consumption expenditure is bottoming out.
 
Data for the May survey were collected from 15th to 17th of May.

US Consumer Demand still in limbo – down from March!

Posted Wed, 04/29/2009 by Jørn Thulstrup

After a fairly strong upturn in March, the monthly CDI fell in April, from -11 last month to –23, significantly lower than April last year, when the monthly index stood at +28. The three-month moving average is slightly up, from -26 in March to -23 now, an indication that the “green shoots” and “glimmers of hope” that President Obama saw in mid April are, until further notice, on hold. With the demand for cars the only exception, all sub-indices are down from March to April.
 
Data for the April survey were collected from 22nd to 26th of April.

Consumer Demand Still on Hold!

Posted Thu, 04/23/2009 by Jørn Thulstrup

I am a great fan of the American economist and Nobel Price laureate Paul Krugman, although I don't always agree with him. But on April 16, 2009 in his Op-Ed column in The New York Times, he gave four good reasons to be cautious about the economic outlook and I think he is absolutely right:
 
1. Things are still getting worse.
2. Some of the good news isn't convincing.
3. There may be other shoes to drop.
4. Even when it's over, it won't be over, because as Krugman states:
"nobody is in the mood for a new burst of spending."
 
The US Consumer Demand Index will be the first to tell for sure when US consumers are in the mood for serious spending. Subscribe today and be sure you will not miss the first and best signal of consumers'changing spending plans.
 
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/17/opinion/17krugman.html?_r=1

US Consumer Demand up – but still in negative territory

Posted Thu, 04/02/2009 by Jørn Thulstrup

The March data shows a fairly strong upturn in the monthly CDI to – 11 from – 37 in February. However the three months moving average only improves marginally from – 26 to – 25 and in order to see a real turnaround the moving aver-age has to be in positive territory three months in a row, so there is still some way to go. The up-turn in the March index is driven primarily by a higher demand for durables, clothing and food. The demand for cars and PC’s is only marginally up.
Data for March were collected from 25th to 29th of March.
 
For full background and details you need to be a subscriber to the US Consumer Demand Index.

Consumer confidence increasing

Posted Fri, 03/20/2009 by roger

On Wednesday (18 March 2009) the Fed announced that it will add more than another $1 trillion to the credit markets this year, a sign of the determination of monetary authorities to do whatever is necessary to get credit flowing once again. And consumers noticed.
 
A Gallup Poll released today (19 March 2009) shows Americans' increasing confidence and improved expectations for the overall economy in the weeks and months ahead.  To see whether this will translate into increased consumer spending plans, subscribe to and receive our next US Consumer Demand Index report.
 
Dr. Roger Selbert
 
For full background and details you need to be a subscriber to the US Consumer Demand Index.
 

Continued Slowdown in American Private Consumption

Posted Wed, 01/09/2008 by Jørn Thulstrup

Despite increased turbulence on the international financial markets, a slowdown in the US economy, and high oil prices the world economy will grow by between four and five per cent in 2008, a historically high level. China and other developing countries represent an increasing portion of the growth in the world economy and the conditions for growth aren’t as poor as they may appear. IFKA’s monthly analysis of US private consumption, US Consumer Demand Index, indicates continued slowdown in the coming months, but not an actual recession. Growth will prevail.
 
Senior Analyst Jørn Thulstrup
 
For full background and details you need to be a subscriber to the US Consumer Demand Index.
 
 

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