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Private consumption

Consumer Demand Index significantly down – but still above all time low

Posted Thu, 06/25/2009 by overby

After a surprisingly strong upswing in May, the CDI for June fell by more than 20 index points and now stands at -27, down from -5 in May as lower demand for clothing and food drags the aggregated index down. However, this is still 10 points up on the all-time low of February 2009. The three-month moving average is also down but less dramatically so, from -13 in May to -18 in June.  

Surprisingly strong upswing in US Consumer Demand

Posted Tue, 05/26/2009 by Jørn Thulstrup

The CDI is now at the highest level since September 2008. The May survey shows a significant upswing from minus 23 points in April to minus 5 in May, driven by improvements in the index for clothing and the index for food and other grocery store items. These two important indices were the last to collapse when high fuel prices sent the US CDI south last year. It’s a fairly strong indication that the decline in US private consumption expenditure is bottoming out.
 
Data for the May survey were collected from 15th to 17th of May.

US Consumer Demand still in limbo – down from March!

Posted Wed, 04/29/2009 by Jørn Thulstrup

After a fairly strong upturn in March, the monthly CDI fell in April, from -11 last month to –23, significantly lower than April last year, when the monthly index stood at +28. The three-month moving average is slightly up, from -26 in March to -23 now, an indication that the “green shoots” and “glimmers of hope” that President Obama saw in mid April are, until further notice, on hold. With the demand for cars the only exception, all sub-indices are down from March to April.
 
Data for the April survey were collected from 22nd to 26th of April.

Consumer Demand Still on Hold!

Posted Thu, 04/23/2009 by Jørn Thulstrup

I am a great fan of the American economist and Nobel Price laureate Paul Krugman, although I don't always agree with him. But on April 16, 2009 in his Op-Ed column in The New York Times, he gave four good reasons to be cautious about the economic outlook and I think he is absolutely right:
 
1. Things are still getting worse.
2. Some of the good news isn't convincing.
3. There may be other shoes to drop.
4. Even when it's over, it won't be over, because as Krugman states:
"nobody is in the mood for a new burst of spending."
 
The US Consumer Demand Index will be the first to tell for sure when US consumers are in the mood for serious spending. Subscribe today and be sure you will not miss the first and best signal of consumers'changing spending plans.
 
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/17/opinion/17krugman.html?_r=1

New dramatic downturn in Consumer Demand Index

Posted Sun, 03/15/2009 by Jørn Thulstrup

The February data shows that we are nowhere near the bottom of the American crisis and therefore also the global crisis which might develop from a financial and economic crisis to a social and political crisis. Our index, which forecast the US consumer demand two quarters ahead of official data with a fair degree of precision, were set to 100 as an average for the year 2002 is now down to minus 37. This indicates a new dramatic collapse of demand in the US, which will in the coming quarters spill over, to the rest of the World.

Data for the February survey were collected from 18th to 22nd of February.

US Consumer Demand Index at new all time low

Posted Wed, 01/28/2009 by Jørn Thulstrup

In November and December 2008 surveys, Afro-Americans households displayed significantly higher buying intentions than the overall average for US families. This Obama-effect among African Americans is even stronger now after the euphoric inauguration. Unfortunately this optimism does not extend to other American households. Business activity, including the extension of credit, seems frozen, and so, therefore, are consumer buying intentions. As a result the January survey is showing the most depressed picture for consumer demand we have ever recorded, since our first survey in February 2001.
 
For full background and details you need to be a subscriber to the US Consumer Demand Index.

Obamas effect on private spending

Posted Wed, 01/21/2009 by Jørn Thulstrup

US confidence in Barak Obama is now so great that it has had an immediate effect on Afro-American families. Our two most recent surveys, conducted in the wake of the presidential election, show that Afro-American households have purchasing intentions significantly higher than the average US household, in direct contrast to previous surveys reflecting the opposite, and covers everything from cars to toys - however, the increase is most pronounced in demand for cars, TV/Radios, home electronics, clothing and footwear. Demand for cars is nearly twice the national average - 11 per cent of Afro-American households intend to purchase a new car in the first three months of 2009, compared to 6 per cent of all households.

Senior Analyst Jørn Thulstrup: 

Continued Slowdown in American Private Consumption

Posted Wed, 01/09/2008 by Jørn Thulstrup

Despite increased turbulence on the international financial markets, a slowdown in the US economy, and high oil prices the world economy will grow by between four and five per cent in 2008, a historically high level. China and other developing countries represent an increasing portion of the growth in the world economy and the conditions for growth aren’t as poor as they may appear. IFKA’s monthly analysis of US private consumption, US Consumer Demand Index, indicates continued slowdown in the coming months, but not an actual recession. Growth will prevail.
 
Senior Analyst Jørn Thulstrup
 
For full background and details you need to be a subscriber to the US Consumer Demand Index.
 
 

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