"In the long run - only short term forecasting is reliable!"
About the US Consumer Demand Index
What is the US Consumer Demand Index?
The US Consumer Demand Index forecasts Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) several months into the future and leadings the ISM-index by up to 5 months.
The power of consumer demand knowledge
If you subscribed to the monthly US Consumer Demand Index in May 2008 you would have known that the time was right to start divesting all or most of your stocks ahead of the market decline in the Fall of 2008. At the same time, if you were a business manager forecasting demand in the same 5 month forward looking period, you would have had a strong indication of how deep the fall would be.
If you subscribe to the US Consumer Demand Index, you will know when to start buying stocks again and where demand will rebound first -- ahead of the market.
Who should use this index to support business and investment decisions?
- Professional investment portfolio managers
- Active private equity investors
- Procurement, production, sales and marketing and transportation and logitics professionals
- Corporate, institutional and research economists
- Others who work with demand-related forecasting
How is the US Consumer Demand Index composed?
Consumerdemand.com has developed a forecasting model that, with a high degree of certainty predicts developments in American consumer spending, which is decisive for developments in the global economy.
The US Consumer Demand Index is differentiated from other indicators by its focus on actual behavior instead of ”impressions” or levels of confidence. It is based on direct information from households about their own plans, not on their expectations for any number of generalized macro-economic conditions. We have more than 20 years of experience with this type of survey and are able to substantiate that consumers’ stated intentions do in fact accurately reflect their future behavior. Thus our subscribers receive more reliable and earlier indications about market developments than other sources can provide.
Every month since February 2001, TNS-Intersearch, a well known and respected survey research company, has conducted 1,000 interviews with a representative cross-section of US private households, using methods and response techniques developed by ConsumerDemand.com. The collected data is then used to calculate the monthly US Consumer Index, US CDI.
The Consumer Demand Index is timely evidence for business decision making
The US Consumer Demand Index predicts developments in private consumption up to two months before official statistics are released with an estimated 70 per cent accuracy. The monthly CDI report reveals how many households will purchase a new car, white goods, radio/TV, furniture, PCs, kitchen equipment and toys over the following three months. In addition, the monthly report reveals how many households over the next three months intend to purchase more, less, or the same amount of food products and footwear, compared to the same period of the previous year.
US private consumption influences developments in a wide range of economic and financial trends including interest and currency rates, share and bond prices, freight rates and raw material and finished product prices globally. Those able to predict levels of American consumption with a greater degree of certainty than others have a stronger possibility of avoiding losses and maximizing market growth opportunities.
The US Consumer Demand Index is essential information, not just for the financial sector, including national banks and investors, but also manufacturers, the retail trade, freight companies and others seeking factual information to support forecasting and decision making.
Who is the primary author?
Jørn Thulstrup is founder and CEO of Consumerdemand.com, and the Copenhagen based Institute for Business Cycle Analysis, IFKA, which since 1983 has conducted quarterly surveys of consumer behaviour in Denmark, other Nordic countries, Russia and the UK.
Born in 1940, Jørn Thulstrup received a Masters Degree in Economics and Political Science from Copenhagen University in 1968. He has worked as head of research under The Danish Research Council for Social Science, as an analyst for The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), and was financial and energy editor at The Danish Broadcasting Corporation between 1977-1985. He is a member of the steering committee for Kiel Institute for the World Economy and an advisor and consultant to governments, private companies and organisations in both Denmark and abroad.
He has travelled the World since 1960. Visited a number of countries in Asia first time 1964, Moscow 1968, and China 1978. Last year he travelled a month in India, visited Singapore, Dubai, Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan and a number of European countries. He is a frequent commentator in the media, has produced radio and TV-programs, written books and articles about energy, international economics and politics, the latest being ‘From Poverty to Happiness …and then what?’ to coincide with IFKA’s 25th anniversary in 2008.
He is the publisher of News ex-press/Embassy News Service, a daily English - language summary of Danish news. In February 2001, alongside US partner, Taylor Nelson Sofres, he started to conduct monthly consumer surveys in the USA, financially supported by the Danish shipping company, A.P.Moller-Maersk. The data from these surveys, which provides a precise forecast of the US-economy, is available through Consumerdemand.com.
March 2009
What is the monthly subscription?
The findings of each most recent survey are published every month in English in a 7 page report and made available to subscribers just days after the latest round of interviews are completed. In addition to the monthly report we are available for bespoke advisement on how the data relates to your interests in the form on-off consultancy or an agreement based on a recurring engagement.