Consumer Demand Index significantly down – but still above all time low

After a surprisingly strong upswing in May, the CDI for June fell by more than 20 index points and now stands at -27, down from -5 in May as lower demand for clothing and food drags the aggregated index down. However, this is still 10 points up on the all-time low of February 2009. The three-month moving average is also down but less dramatically so, from -13 in May to -18 in June.  
Reminding you that the index was set at 100 as an average for the year of 2000, it's obvious that we are not yet out of the woods. But on the other hand the new data do not convincingly indicate that there is much further to go to reach the bottom, if we have not already reached it. So our conclusion today is the same as in the beginning of June: we are on the right track and are slowly, slowly moving in the right direction.  
There are two major threats to this relative optimistic scenario: 1) The danger of growing protectionism. 2) Oil prices above 100 US $ pr. barrel, which could be triggered either by a major conflict in the Middle East or by speculators on the basis of the widespread misconception that the world is soon running out of oil and gas.  
Data for the June survey was collected from the 17th to 21st of June.   
The next edition of our survey will be mailed to subscribers at 1400 hrs GMT on the 29th of July 2009  
Jorn Thulstrup and Roger Selbert