"In the long run - only short term forecasting is reliable!"
Obamas effect on private spending
US confidence in Barak Obama is now so great that it has had an immediate effect on Afro-American families. Our two most recent surveys, conducted in the wake of the presidential election, show that Afro-American households have purchasing intentions significantly higher than the average US household, in direct contrast to previous surveys reflecting the opposite, and covers everything from cars to toys - however, the increase is most pronounced in demand for cars, TV/Radios, home electronics, clothing and footwear. Demand for cars is nearly twice the national average - 11 per cent of Afro-American households intend to purchase a new car in the first three months of 2009, compared to 6 per cent of all households.
Senior Analyst Jørn Thulstrup:
A country's confidence in its leadership has 'major significance' for private spending developments. If confidence in the Obama administration spreads from Afro-American families to the average household, it would have a positive effect on US consumer spending, which accounts for a fifth of the world economy, and provide a much-needed boost.
IFKA's US surveys are based on 1,000 interviews conducted every month with representative selected households. All data collected forms the US Consumer Demand Index, a monthly publication that provides a strong indication of developments in US consumer spending four to six months ahead. The recognised American analysis institute, TNS, conducts IFKA's interviews in the US.
