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| Posted May 24 2013 by Dr. roger selbert and Jorn Thulstrup |
US consumers will increase consumption |
For the first time since the crisis in 2008 there are
signs that the US consumers, in spite of fiscal tightening and continuously high
gasoline prices, will increase consumption in the months
ahead.
Dr.
Roger Selberts comments to the May report:
"The May CDI suggests that consumer demand
continues to increase from record-low levels. We have even reached pre-crisis
levels for non-durables. Demand is still hesitant for some durables, but barring
further shocks we certainly can say demand is up from the bottom. Consumer demand has now absorbed the impact of
higher taxes, higher gas prices, high unemployment and more uncertainty, as
consumers are resilient and have other sources of income (savings, transfer
payments, borrowing, unreported economic activity, etc.). " |
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| Posted May 22 2013 by Jorn Thulstrup |
May edition of US CDI to be published Friday 24 |
The May edition of US Consumer Demand Indices will be published on Friday 24 at 1300 hrs GMT - 0800 hrs EST
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| Posted April 25 2013 by Jorn Thulstrup |
Boston Marathon Bombings might have a negative effect on US consumption |
The two main indices are significantly down from March.
Although this has happened before it's not a regular seasonally development, so
we have been looking into the possibly effect on purchasing behaviour of the
Boston Marathon Bombing. The bombing took place on April 15. Interview to the April survey were carried out from
April 18 to April 20, so one could be tempted to conclude that the Boston
Bombing might have an effect on consumption. Looking back on the data from the
9/11 attack, data for September 2001 was collected eight to twelve days after
the attack. Then the index for durables went down from 60.6 in August to 57,3 in
September 2001 a statistically significant difference. The index for
non-durables was marginally up from -0.3 in Aug. to +0.7 in September, not
significant. So the conclusion is, that the Boston Marathon Bombings might have
a negative effect on US consumption.
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