US Consumer Demand Indices "In the long run - only short term forecasting is reliable!"
Jorn Thulstrup

Personal Consumption Expenditure in the US is still
by far the largest motor in the World Economy.

US Consumer Demand Indicies is the leading indicator for this motor!

 
Next publication date is December 17 2014
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Posted November 13 2014 by Jorn Thulstrup

North America Economic Climate ahead of Europe and Asia

The German IFO Institute today published its index for the world economy with the headline: Ifo World Economic Climate Clouds Over Heavily. North America Economic Climate however is still ahead of Europe and Asia and remains way above its 15 year average. The US dollar is expected to appreciate further.

The Ifo Index fell to 95.0 points from 105.0 points in the previous quarter, reaching its lowest level since the third quarter of 2013. It is now below its long-term average of 95.5 points. Assessments of the current economic situation deteriorated only slightly. Economic expectations, however, were strongly downwardly revised. The upswing in the world economy is suffering a setback.
The Ifo Business-Cycle Clock however is still in the recovery/upswing section - so don't panic!
 
Posted November 02 2014 by Dr. Selbert and Jorn Thulstrup

We told you so - again and again!

In November 2007 the US Consumer Demand Indices (USCDI) indicated that private consumption in the US, which equals about 70% of the US economy, would go significantly down. This was ten months before the collapse of Lehmann Brothers. That was a spot-on prediction.

 

In June 2014 USCDI showed that the US economy was back on track. This has now been confirmed by the Bureau of Economic Analysis in an "advance" estimate: the BEA is projecting an annual growth rate of 3.5% in the third quarter of 2014.  Real GDP increased 4.6% in the second quarter of 2014. Spot-on.

 

In addition, Thomson Reuters has just published its Index of Consumer Sentiment with the following headline: "Consumer Sentiment Highest in Seven Years." Sounds amazingly close to our Consumer Demand Indices headline from 26 June of this year: "The most optimistic report since May 2007"!

 

We again have proven that our unique tracking of US consumer demand is the most accurate predictor of the most powerful engine of the world economy.

 

Be sure you are a subscriber! Next issue will be released to subscribers on December 17, 2014.

 

 
Posted October 09 2014 by Jorn Thulstrup

Confusing US consumer surveys!

On September 24th, Institute for Business Cycle Analysis published our quarterly consumer survey, US Consumer Demand Indices, under the headline: "The optimism from June is fading. However, - food and cars - are holding up. Demand for cars at record high level."

On September 26th Thomson Reuters University of Michigan published their Index of Consumer Sentiments under the headline: "Consumer Sentiments Strengthens" and stated: "Consumer confidence posted a healthy September gain due to more favorable prospects for the domestic economy as well as more favorable personal income expectations."

On October 1st The Conference Board published their Consumer Confidence Index and headlined it: "Consumer Confidence Declines"

Below the headlines optimism remains
Looking below the headlines; our US Consumer Demand Indices indicates hesitation regarding demand for both durables and non-durables from June 2014 to September 2014. Cars and food, however, are the exceptions. It is a setback from June 2014, where pre-crisis levels were reached, and from September last year; but still a dramatic improvement compared to September 2012.    

In spite of its negative headlines, The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index points toward renewed strength in consumer spending. Thomson Reuters University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment is optimistic both on a monthly and on a yearly basis, a parallel to the June 2014 edition of US Consumer Demand Indices.

 Looking further back to September 2012, there is no doubt that we are out of the woods. The lower prices on gasoline, we have seen for some time will further support demand for other goods, both durables and non-durables.   

Jorn Thulstrup
 

 
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For comments please contact Dr. Roger Selbert at +1 (310) 721 6322 or roger@rogerselbert.com or Jorn Thulstrup at + 45 4026 8270 or jt@consumerdemand.com


US Consumer Demand Indices forecasts Personal Consumption Expenditure in the US two quarters ahead of official data!
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