US Consumer Demand Indices "In the long run - only short term forecasting is reliable!"
Jorn Thulstrup

Personal Consumption Expenditure in the US is still
by far the largest motor in the World Economy.

US Consumer Demand Indicies is the leading indicator for this motor!

 
Next publication date is March 25 2015
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Posted December 17 2014 by Jorn Thulstrup

US Consumer demand disappoints - order the new report!


The December 2015 edition of the US Consumer Demand Indices, the best forecasting tool for the US economy, is available to day at 13.00 Greenwich Mean Time (GMT) Copenhagen. Data for the survey collected December 14 -17.

Order the new report and see what will happen!

Send an email to jt@consumerdemand.com and when you have received the new report transfer USD 25 or DK 145
to our account: Nordea 2191 - 89 71 37 99 45 – remember to include your name, institution/company and email.

Don't hesitate to call if you have any questions - +45 40268270


 
Posted November 13 2014 by Jorn Thulstrup

North America Economic Climate ahead of Europe and Asia

The German IFO Institute today published its index for the world economy with the headline: Ifo World Economic Climate Clouds Over Heavily. North America Economic Climate however is still ahead of Europe and Asia and remains way above its 15 year average. The US dollar is expected to appreciate further.

The Ifo Index fell to 95.0 points from 105.0 points in the previous quarter, reaching its lowest level since the third quarter of 2013. It is now below its long-term average of 95.5 points. Assessments of the current economic situation deteriorated only slightly. Economic expectations, however, were strongly downwardly revised. The upswing in the world economy is suffering a setback.
The Ifo Business-Cycle Clock however is still in the recovery/upswing section - so don't panic!
 
Posted November 02 2014 by Dr. Selbert and Jorn Thulstrup

We told you so - again and again!

In November 2007 the US Consumer Demand Indices (USCDI) indicated that private consumption in the US, which equals about 70% of the US economy, would go significantly down. This was ten months before the collapse of Lehmann Brothers. That was a spot-on prediction.

 

In June 2014 USCDI showed that the US economy was back on track. This has now been confirmed by the Bureau of Economic Analysis in an "advance" estimate: the BEA is projecting an annual growth rate of 3.5% in the third quarter of 2014.  Real GDP increased 4.6% in the second quarter of 2014. Spot-on.

 

In addition, Thomson Reuters has just published its Index of Consumer Sentiment with the following headline: "Consumer Sentiment Highest in Seven Years." Sounds amazingly close to our Consumer Demand Indices headline from 26 June of this year: "The most optimistic report since May 2007"!

 

We again have proven that our unique tracking of US consumer demand is the most accurate predictor of the most powerful engine of the world economy.

 

Be sure you are a subscriber! Next issue will be released to subscribers on December 17, 2014.

 

 
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For comments please contact Dr. Roger Selbert at +1 (310) 721 6322 or roger@rogerselbert.com or Jorn Thulstrup at + 45 4026 8270 or jt@consumerdemand.com


US Consumer Demand Indices forecasts Personal Consumption Expenditure in the US two quarters ahead of official data!
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