US Consumer Demand Indices "In the long run - only short term forecasting is reliable!"
Jorn Thulstrup

Personal Consumption Expenditure in the US is still
by far the largest motor in the World Economy.

US Consumer Demand Indicies is the leading indicator for this motor!

Next publication date is September 25 2014
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Posted August 30 2014 by Jorn Thulstrup

US CDI forecast from March 27 confirmed

The headline of our March 2014 report published March 27 said: "US consumer demand to improve in the months ahead, demand for cars, food and other grocery store items up"
  This optimistic forecast was confirmed Thursday 28, when the official annualized US growth estimate was revised from 4 per cent to 4.2 per cent. Final sales of domestic products were revised up, from an annualized 2.3 per cent to 2.8 per cent.


The US CDI report from June 26, based on survey data collected June 19 - 22 stated: "The most optimistic report since May 2007. All demand indices above the level in June last year" This points to a strong second half of the year.


Our September report, to be published on September 24, will show the way.   

Posted June 26 2014 by Jorn Thulstrup

The June report is the most optimistic since May 2007


All demand indices are above the level in June last year. This does look as a real turn around, not only for the US economy, but also for the World Economy, as private consumption in the US is still by far the largest engine in the World Economy.


When significantly larger amounts of non-durables and durables is moving out of Wal-Mart and other retailer, more goods has to be moved in, has to be produced and sailed!

Posted June 23 2014 by Dr. Selbert and Jorn Thulstrup

Is world trade really sluggish?

Financial Times carried a headline Monday 23 2014 saying: Growth in world trade sluggish


In the article FT stated that "World trade had an anaemic start to 2014, according to new figures that confirm the faltering state of the global economic recovery six years on from the collapse of Lehman Brothers." CDI data forecasted the collapse in early 2008 and the recovery from early 2009 to the sluggish growth since 2010. The June edition to be published on June 26 will show where we go from now.




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For comments please contact Dr. Roger Selbert at +1 (310) 721 6322 or or Jorn Thulstrup at + 45 4026 8270 or

US Consumer Demand Indices forecasts Personal Consumption Expenditure in the US two quarters ahead of official data!
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