US Consumer Demand Indices "In the long run - only short term forecasting is reliable!"
Jorn Thulstrup

Personal Consumption Expenditure in the US is still
by far the largest motor in the World Economy.

US Consumer Demand Indicies is the leading indicator for this motor!

 
Next publication date is September 25 2014
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Posted June 26 2014 by Jorn Thulstrup

The June report is the most optimistic since May 2007

 

All demand indices are above the level in June last year. This does look as a real turn around, not only for the US economy, but also for the World Economy, as private consumption in the US is still by far the largest engine in the World Economy.

 

When significantly larger amounts of non-durables and durables is moving out of Wal-Mart and other retailer, more goods has to be moved in, has to be produced and sailed!

 
Posted June 23 2014 by Dr. Selbert and Jorn Thulstrup

Is world trade really sluggish?

Financial Times carried a headline Monday 23 2014 saying: Growth in world trade sluggish

 

In the article FT stated that "World trade had an anaemic start to 2014, according to new figures that confirm the faltering state of the global economic recovery six years on from the collapse of Lehman Brothers." CDI data forecasted the collapse in early 2008 and the recovery from early 2009 to the sluggish growth since 2010. The June edition to be published on June 26 will show where we go from now.

 

 

 

 
Posted May 31 2014 by Jorn Thulstrup

CDI forcasted disappointing sales and falling stock prices

 

On May 31 2014 Financial Times reported that clothes retailers had disappointing sales in the early part of 2014. The November, December 2013 and March 2014 editions of US CDI forecasted correctly the disappointing sales of clothing and the dramatic fall in retailer's stock prices. Guess Inc dropped more than 20 pct. from Nov 2013 to May 2014. The CDI indicates that same-store sales will fall in the second quarter. The June edition of US CDI, to be published on June 26, will indicate the development in the third quarter.    

 
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For comments please contact Dr. Roger Selbert at +1 (310) 721 6322 or roger@rogerselbert.com or Jorn Thulstrup at + 45 4026 8270 or jt@consumerdemand.com


US Consumer Demand Indices forecasts Personal Consumption Expenditure in the US two quarters ahead of official data!
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