US Consumer Demand Indices "In the long run - only short term forecasting is reliable!"
Jorn Thulstrup

Personal Consumption Expenditure in the US is still
by far the largest motor in the World Economy.

US Consumer Non-durables Index is the leading indicator for this motor!

Our next report will be mailed to our subcribers at 1300 hours GMT on June 26 2013

Main US Consumer Demand Data to Nasdaq OMX Event-Driven Analytics

From November 2012 the monthly data from our two main indices: Demand for Non-Durable and Demand for Durables is delivered to the Machine Readable News Service at the Nasdaq OMX Event-Driven Analytics.

Posted May 24 2013 by Dr. roger selbert and Jorn Thulstrup

US consumers will increase consumption

For the first time since the crisis in 2008 there are signs that the US consumers, in spite of fiscal tightening and continuously high gasoline prices, will increase consumption in the months ahead. 
  
Dr. Roger Selberts comments to the May report: 
 
 "The May CDI suggests that consumer demand continues to increase from record-low levels. We have even reached pre-crisis levels for non-durables. Demand is still hesitant for some durables, but barring further shocks we certainly can say demand is up from the bottom.  Consumer demand has now absorbed the impact of higher taxes, higher gas prices, high unemployment and more uncertainty, as consumers are resilient and have other sources of income (savings, transfer payments, borrowing, unreported economic activity, etc.). "
 
Posted May 22 2013 by Jorn Thulstrup

May edition of US CDI to be published Friday 24

The May edition of US Consumer Demand Indices will be published on Friday 24 at 1300 hrs GMT - 0800 hrs EST
 
Posted April 25 2013 by Jorn Thulstrup

Boston Marathon Bombings might have a negative effect on US consumption

The two main indices are significantly down from March. Although this has happened before it's not a regular seasonally development, so we have been looking into the possibly effect on purchasing behaviour of the Boston Marathon Bombing. The bombing took place on April 15. Interview to the April survey were carried out from April 18 to April 20, so one could be tempted to conclude that the Boston Bombing might have an effect on consumption. Looking back on the data from the 9/11 attack, data for September 2001 was collected eight to twelve days after the attack. Then the index for durables went down from 60.6 in August to 57,3 in September 2001 a statistically significant difference. The index for non-durables was marginally up from -0.3 in Aug. to +0.7 in September, not significant. So the conclusion is, that the Boston Marathon Bombings might have a negative effect on US consumption.  

 
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For comments please contact Dr. Roger Selbert at +1 (310) 721 6322 or roger@rogerselbert.com or Jorn Thulstrup at + 45 4026 8270 or jt@consumerdemand.com


US Consumer Demand Indices forecasts Personal Consumption Expenditure in the US two quarters ahead of official data!
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