US Consumer Demand Indices "In the long run - only short term forecasting is reliable!"
Jorn Thulstrup

Personal Consumption Expenditure in the US is still
by far the largest motor in the World Economy.

US Consumer Demand Indicies is the leading indicator for this motor!

 
Next publication date is December 17 2014
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Posted October 09 2014 by Jorn Thulstrup

Confusing US consumer surveys!

On September 24th, Institute for Business Cycle Analysis published our quarterly consumer survey, US Consumer Demand Indices, under the headline: "The optimism from June is fading. However, - food and cars - are holding up. Demand for cars at record high level."

On September 26th Thomson Reuters University of Michigan published their Index of Consumer Sentiments under the headline: "Consumer Sentiments Strengthens" and stated: "Consumer confidence posted a healthy September gain due to more favorable prospects for the domestic economy as well as more favorable personal income expectations."

On October 1st The Conference Board published their Consumer Confidence Index and headlined it: "Consumer Confidence Declines"

Below the headlines optimism remains
Looking below the headlines; our US Consumer Demand Indices indicates hesitation regarding demand for both durables and non-durables from June 2014 to September 2014. Cars and food, however, are the exceptions. It is a setback from June 2014, where pre-crisis levels were reached, and from September last year; but still a dramatic improvement compared to September 2012.    

In spite of its negative headlines, The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index points toward renewed strength in consumer spending. Thomson Reuters University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment is optimistic both on a monthly and on a yearly basis, a parallel to the June 2014 edition of US Consumer Demand Indices.

 Looking further back to September 2012, there is no doubt that we are out of the woods. The lower prices on gasoline, we have seen for some time will further support demand for other goods, both durables and non-durables.   

Jorn Thulstrup
 

 
Posted September 24 2014 by Jorn Thulstrup

The optimism from June is fading - food and cars are holding up

The optimism from June is fading. However, the two major categories - food and cars - are holding up. Demand for cars at a record high level. 10 pct. of US households have decided to buy a new car in the coming three months. It was 8.5 pct. in June and 9.9 pct. in September last year. This level is a record high since the start of the survey in early 2001. In Sept. 2008 it was at 4.6

Most other durables are down from the level in June, but still significantly above the levels in 2012 and 2013. Non-durables are up.

The net index for Food and other grocery store items - those who will purchase more in the coming three months, minus those who will buy less - is at 5.1. It was 5.0 in June and 5.2 in September last year. In September 2012 it was at 0.2 and in September 2008 at - 9.1, so in that sense we are out of the woods.  

 
Posted August 30 2014 by Jorn Thulstrup

US CDI forecast from March 27 confirmed

The headline of our March 2014 report published March 27 said: "US consumer demand to improve in the months ahead, demand for cars, food and other grocery store items up"
  This optimistic forecast was confirmed Thursday 28, when the official annualized US growth estimate was revised from 4 per cent to 4.2 per cent. Final sales of domestic products were revised up, from an annualized 2.3 per cent to 2.8 per cent.

 

The US CDI report from June 26, based on survey data collected June 19 - 22 stated: "The most optimistic report since May 2007. All demand indices above the level in June last year" This points to a strong second half of the year.

 

Our September report, to be published on September 24, will show the way.   

 
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For comments please contact Dr. Roger Selbert at +1 (310) 721 6322 or roger@rogerselbert.com or Jorn Thulstrup at + 45 4026 8270 or jt@consumerdemand.com


US Consumer Demand Indices forecasts Personal Consumption Expenditure in the US two quarters ahead of official data!
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