US Consumer Demand Indices "In the long run - only short term forecasting is reliable!"
Jorn Thulstrup

Personal Consumption Expenditure in the US is still
by far the largest motor in the World Economy.

US Consumer Demand Indicies is the leading indicator for this motor!

Next publication date is June 26 2014
Posted March 27 2014 by Jorn Thulstrup

US consumer demand to improve

US consumers do not seem to be very concerned about the crisis with Russia. The March edition of US Consumer Demand Indices shows that demand will improve in the month's ahead. Demand for cars is significantly higher in March 2014 than in March 2013. For some other durable goods however demand is down. Demand for Food and other grocery store items are up. Demand for Clothing and Footwear down.

Posted March 13 2014 by Jorn Thulstrup

US Consumers are holding back

The monthly consumer surveys from The Conference Board and Thompson Reuters came out with negative signals in February. "Consumer Confidence Declines" and "Weather Freezes Confidence" were the headlines. Buying plans are lower or unchanged. Year on year change in expectations however is positive.

The March surveys will show how the international crisis around Ukraine will affect US consumer's confidence. The US Consumer Demand Indices from March will show to what extend the US consumers will drive private consumption in the US, the largest engine in the World Economy.  

US CDI will be published on March 27.

Posted February 13 2014 by Jorn Thulstrup

Ifo World Economic Climate Continues to Brighten

The Ifo Indicator for the world economic climate continued to rise. Assessments of the current economic situation were more positive than three months ago. The six-month economic outlook remains bright. The world economy is expected to gain momentum in the months ahead. Caution, however, must be exercised in interpreting these assessments since they do not reflect the turbulence seen in the currency markets of emerging economies since the end of January.


Positive signals mainly emanated from North America, and especially from the USA. The indicator rose sharply due to additional positive assessments of the current economic situation, as well as more favourable economic expectations.


Since 1981 the Ifo Institute has conducted a quarterly survey in numerous countries on business cycle developments and other economic factors in the experts' home countries. The January 2014 survey received responses from 1,121 experts in 121 countries.

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For comments please contact Dr. Roger Selbert at +1 (310) 721 6322 or or Jorn Thulstrup at + 45 4026 8270 or

US Consumer Demand Indices forecasts Personal Consumption Expenditure in the US two quarters ahead of official data!
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